Global Semiconductor Market To Grow 31% in 2000
- 2000 Sales to Reach $195 Billion, Increasing to $312 Billion in 2003 -
REDWOOD CITY, CA -- The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today released its Mid- Year Forecast for the semiconductor industry that predicts an annual compound average growth rate of 20 percent through 2003. The industry has not seen such growth since the 1993-1995 period.
The semiconductor market growth is being driven largely by the increasing pervasiveness of the Internet and the wireless communication products expanding such semiconductor product segments as Digital Signal Processors (DSP), Flash memory, analog, and optoelectronics.
The overall growth of the semiconductor industry will be 31% in 2000 with revenues of $195 billion and expanding 25% to $244 billion in 2001. The market is expected to continue its momentum in 2002 with sales of $279 billion, a 14 percent increase, and ending the year 2003 with $312 billion of sales which is an increase of 12 percent.
"We are seeing unprecedented user demand for communications of all kinds -- basic communications, data, and, of course, Internet access," said John Dickson, executive vice president and CEO of Lucent Technologies Microelectronics and Communications Technologies unit.
The Internet, communications, and wireless consumer products have become the new growth drivers for the semiconductor industry. They demonstrate the shift from personal computers which still remain the largest single market for semiconductors to a more balanced end demand for semiconductor products.
Dickson, an SIA Board member, presented the mid-year forecast at a luncheon at the Sofitel Hotel in Redwood City. In a review of the impact of communications on the industry, Dickson stated, "Weve seen evidence of the ascendancy of communications semiconductors as the growth driver of the industry. We have also seen optoelectronics become the new belle of the ball with strong growth driven by exploding demand for bandwidth." He added, "This burgeoning customer demand is a major factor changing the paradigm in the world of semiconductors. All in all, Im very optimistic that our industry is in store for some very good years ahead."
World Market: The Americas market will remain the worlds largest in the next four years with the Asia Pacific, or non-Japan markets, continuing its robust growth, closing-in on the Americas market. The European market will be right behind Asia Pacific which has gained momentum over the last couple of years. While the Japan market is still recovering from the protracted domestic recession, it will also experience double-digit growth.
Americas Market: The Americas will grow 24 percent to $59 billion in 2000, 24 percent to $73 billion in 2001, 13 percent to $83 billion in 2002, and 11 percent to $92 billion in 2003.
European Market: This region will grow 32 percent in 2000 to $42 billion, 25 percent to $52 billion in 2001, 14 percent to $59 billion in 2002, and 12 percent to $66 billion in 2003.
Japanese Market: The Japanese market will grow 31 percent to $43 billion in 2000, 22 percent to $53 billion in 2001, 13 percent to $59 billion in 2002, and 12 percent to $66 billion in 2003.
Asia Pacific Market: This region is currently the fastest growing semiconductor market. This region is expected to grow 38 percent to $51 billion in 2000, 29 percent to $66 billion in 2001, 17 percent to $77 billion in 2002, and 14 percent to $88 billion in 2003.
Other highlights of the SIA 2000-2003 forecast:
Discrete Components: Discrete Components, which comprise nearly 8 percent of the global market, will grow 22 percent to $16 billion in 2000, 15 percent to $19 billion in 2001, 8 percent to $20 billion in 2002, and 3 percent to $21 billion in 2003. Discrete sectors that will experience a surge of growth include Radio Frequency (RF) and Power Management devices which are both found in wireless consumer products.
Optoelectronics: The optoelectronics market which include laser devices and image sensors is emerging as a strong semiconductor sector and includes products that are frequently used in communication applications. This market is expected to grow 32 percent to $7.6 billion in 2000, 29 percent to $9.9 billion in 2001, 26 percent to $12 billion in 2002, and 23 percent to $15 billion by 2003.
Analog: The global analog market will grow over 50 percent during the next four years. The analog market is expected to grow 35 percent to $30 billion in 2000, 23 percent to $36 billion in 2001, 17 percent to $43 billion in 2002, and 11 percent to $48 billion by 2003. The main end- use driver of the analog demand is the global move to upgrade telecommunications networks to take advantage of Internet growth and digital telecom technologies.
MOS Logic: The global logic market which includes standard cell and Field Programmable Logic Devices (FPLD) will grow faster than the overall worldwide semiconductor industry this year. MOS Logic is forecasted to grow 33 percent to $31 billion in 2000, 28 percent to $39 billion in 2001, 24 percent to $49 billion in 2002, and 21 percent to $59 billion in 2003. Particularly noteworthy is the doubling of the standard cell market from $9.2 billion this year to $19 billion in 2003. The 27 percent-plus compounded annual growth rate for standard cell illustrates the global movement toward "system-on-a-chip" integration. The FPLD market is the fastest growing product over-time in the MOS Logic sector.
MOS Micro Devices: This product category which includes microprocessors, microcontrollers and microperipherals will experience strong growth over the next four years. In 2000, this sector is expected to grow 20 percent to $62 billion, 19 percent to $74 billion in 2001, 14 percent to $84 billion in 2002, and 11 percent to $93 billion in 2003.
Microprocessors: Growth in this sector will continue consistent with the maturing PC market, however, embedded applications will stimulate this sector in the future. Microprocessors will grow 16 percent to $32 billion in 2000, 14 percent to $36 billion in 2001, 11 percent to $40 billion in 2002, and 5 percent to $42 billion in 2003.
Microcontroller: The global microcontroller market is continuing to make a steady comeback and is expected to grow 37 percent to $19 billion in 2000, 29 percent to $25 billion in 2001, 18 percent to $29 billion in 2002, and 16 percent to $34 billion by 2003. DSPs are currently one of the industrys fastest growing major product lines and is expected to grow 55 percent this year to $6.8 billion and increase in sales to $14 billion with 20 percent growth in 2003.
MOS Memory: The MOS market which includes DRAMs, SRAMs, EPROMs and Flash will continue to exhibit its historical volatility in the coming years. In 2000, the MOS Memory market is forecasted to grow 47 percent to $48 billion, 37 percent to $65 billion in 2001, and by 2002 is expected to incur a cyclical downturn with growth slowing to 6 percent with $69 billion in sales, and 10 percent growth to $76 billion in sales for 2003.
DRAM: No one segment so clearly demonstrates the volatility and cyclicality of the global semiconductor market than DRAMs. The DRAM market is expected to grow 42 percent to $29 billion in 2000, 44 percent to $42 billion in 2001, then slowing down its growth to 5 percent with $44 billion in sales for 2002, and in 2003 growing 13 percent with $50 billion in sales.
Flash: The Flash market is currently the fastest growing product sector for the year 2000 due to the demand of telecommunication products. This market is expected to grow 116 percent to $9.9 billion in 2000, 34 percent to $13 billion in 2001, and slowing the growth to 9 percent with $14 billion in sales in 2002, and 1 percent growth to $15 billion by 2003.
To listen to the Mid-Year Forecast presentation, you may call 1-800-221-3639, confirmation code: 4297382. This will be available until June 21, 2000.
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